Future Perspectives

Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

 

 

Growth1 2017

 

Growth forecast1 2018

Growth 2017 restated

1

Real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Markit

2

Including about 50 countries defined by IHS Markit as Emerging Markets in line with the World Bank

As of February 2018

World

 

+3.2%

 

+3.3%

European Union

 

+2.5%

 

+2.2%

of which Germany

 

+2.6%

 

+2.8%

United States

 

+2.2%

 

+2.7%

Emerging Markets2

 

+4.8%

 

+4.8%

Global economic growth remains strong

The global economy should continue to grow strongly in 2018. In the United States, particularly, we expect higher momentum than in 2017. Among other things, the recent tax cuts should provide economic impetus, and unemployment should also decline, reinforcing consumer spending. Robust growth can also be expected in Europe, although it is likely to be slightly lower than in 2017. The economy is still being hampered by political uncertainty, including the wrangling about what form the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union should take. By contrast, a further reduction in unemployment should have a positive impact. In the Emerging Markets, we anticipate strong growth on the same level as in the previous year. As the global economy remains in good shape, growth in these countries should be driven principally by exports. We expect strong growth in China but at a slightly slower pace than in 2017.

Economic Outlook for the Segments

 

 

Growth1 2017

 

Growth forecast1 2018

1

Bayer’s estimate, except pharmaceuticals. Source for pharmaceuticals market: IMS Health. IMS Market Prognosis. Copyright 2017. All rights reserved; currency-adjusted; 2017 data provisional

As of February 2018

Pharmaceuticals market

 

+3%

 

+4%

Consumer health market

 

+3–4%

 

+3–4%

Seeds and crop protection market

 

+1%

 

+3%

Animal health market

 

+2%

 

+4%

We anticipate that the pharmaceuticals market will post slightly higher growth in 2018 (4%) than in 2017. The main growth drivers are likely to be new product launches. The expiration of patents is expected to have a negative impact as it could result in increased competition from generics. We see a positive development in the United States, Europe, Latin America and Asia, but slower growth in the Japanese pharmaceuticals market.

As regards the consumer health market, we anticipate growth of 3 to 4% in 2018. The market is likely to remain tight as a result of rising price pressure from e-commerce and consolidation of the retail sector.

The global seed and crop protection market should develop positively in 2018 (+3%). In our view, the principal growth momentum will come from Latin America, mainly due to the expected normalization of inventories of crop protection products in Brazil and a further increase in soybean acreages. We also expect the market to grow in the Asia / Pacific region and in Eastern Europe. The persistently low price of agricultural commodities in North America and Western Europe is likely to be reflected in sluggish growth, which will lag behind the overall global development.

Following a slight upturn in the animal health market at the end of 2017, we expect growth to pick up compared with 2017 to 4% in 2018. The main factors here are likely to be an improvement in market conditions in the farm animals sector, along with further robust demand in the companion animals business.

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